- US President Donald Trump has publicly maintained that the US economy is strong, despite privately being told by officials that economic data indicates a possible downturn in the coming year, as detailed Thursday in The Washington Post.
- The Post said Trump believed that through positive messaging he could convince Americans that the economy remained vibrant, therefore averting a recession.
- Analysts believe that an economic downturn could seriously dent Trump’s chances of reelection in 2020.
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President Donald Trump believes he can keep the US economy afloat and avoid a severe downturn by undertaking an aggressive campaign of positive public messaging, despite aides warning him of a looming slowdown, The Washington Post reported Thursday.
Three people familiar with the matter told the publication that in early August the president was privately briefed by officials that data indicated the economy was likely to slow considerably over the next year, a period coinciding with his 2020 reelection campaign.
In public statements, however, the president has maintained that the US economy is strong, and he reportedly believes he can convince Americans that it remains vibrant through positive public messaging.
The Daily Beast reported earlier in August that three unnamed sources who had spoken with Trump about the economy since 2017 said he thought negative media reports could help ignite a recession and that this could be counteracted by positive messaging.
Trump "thinks recessions or booms are often self-fulfilling prophecies," an unnamed source told the publication.
"He's said when the media starts beating the drum about a recession coming, that negativity gets into people's heads and they change their behavior: less purchasing, fewer entrepreneurs starting small businesses, people moving money out of the market, [and so on].
"That's why he's so concerned about the coverage of a potential recession … He believes he can will the economy in a positive direction by feeding optimism to the 'American spirit.'"
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on The Post's report.
Fluctuations last week in markets have prompted concerns that an economic slowdown or even recession may be approaching. Earlier in August, the yield curve in US Treasury bonds underwent an inversion, meaning that longer-term borrowing became cheaper than short-term borrowing.
Sustained inversions of part of the yield curve have preceded every US recession in the past 50 years.
The White House's response to the possibility of a downturn has been inconsistent, with officials reportedly reluctant last week to form plans meant to boost the economy over concerns that such planning would increase fear and therefore fuel the fire of a downturn.
Soon afterward, however, Trump announced that measures to boost the economy were being considered, among them possible payroll tax cuts.
The president's public statements have continued to be defiantly upbeat about the prospects for the economy, and he has accused the news media without evidence of exaggerating fears of a downturn as part of a plot to hasten a recession and end his presidency.
The Economy is doing really well. The Federal Reserve can easily make it Record Setting! The question is being asked, why are we paying much more in interest than Germany and certain other countries? Be early (for a change), not late. Let America win big, rather than just win!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 22, 2019
Among the factors that economists have identified as being responsible for the global economic downturn are Trump's tariffs on Chinese goods, which the president has continued to defend.
Trump on Wednesday said that even if America did fall into recession, it would be a price worth paying for confronting China over its trade practices.